Saturday, May 14, 2016

The DUI Task Force

A friend of mine got pulled over for a DUI last week driving my drunk ass home from a Kentucky Derby Party.  Over the course of five hours she had a gin and tonic and three smallish glasses of wine. I know this because at this dinner party we were all drinking out of our own bottle and she still had a quarter bottle left at the end of the night.

Out of nowhere the blue lights were behind us...two cars and a "DUI TASK FORCE" vehicle.  They said they pulled my friend over because she "pulled too far into an intersection at a stoplight" (meaning the hood of her car was on the white line).  

They asked if she was drinking.  She told them what she had.  They said the car smelled of liquor (neither of us were drinking liquor.)

They made her take the field sobriety test.  I got out to try to watch but they forcibly made me get back in my car threatening me with prison for obstructing justice.

I tried to watch out the back window.  The cop saw and pulled the DUI wagon over to intentionally obstruct my view (really??).

They told me she did poorly on the sobriety test.  (The video shows otherwise).

The took her to the detention center where she was interviewed.  The official statement determined she appeared inebriated. (The video shows otherwise).

She submitted to a breathalyzer.  The results showed no alcohol, and were deemed inconclusive, so she did it again.  Again the results were inconclusive, so after taking the breathalyzer twice, they marked her down as "UNWILLING" to take a breathalyzer.  In our state this means you lose your license automatically for six months.

They kept her in jail overnight and released her on her own recognizance and she is awaiting trial.

How did this country reach the point where policing like this is viewed as a service to the community?  

1.  She was not drunk (statutorily or otherwise)
2.  She passed her sobriety test according to our attorney after viewing the videotape
3. She was sober and cooperative in her interview also evidenced on videotape
4. She took and passed two breathalyzers, because of which she is now unable to drive to work.

The attorney assured us this is an open and shut case, nothing will go on her record, but that we will probably be on the hook for $15,000 or so.  

Please tell me how we let this happen to our country?

Friday, May 6, 2016

Why Monetary Policy Will Not Work

It is not an original thought to say that asset prices are simply too high.  They are.  Nor is it original to ask why. When you make increasing amounts of free money available by forcing it into the economy through asset purchases, the price of assets are bound to go up.  

The original thought I bring to the table today is why this additional inflow of money has not created "inflation".  The reality is that it has created inflation.  A lot of it.  But the inflation it has created is in assets, not necessarily in goods, as they are traditionally measured.   

Why is this?  Wealth inequality.  Think about it.  If you have a billion dollars, how much crap do you actually need?  I suspect for billionaires even though the toys get bigger, they do not necessarily buy more toys.  

So...follow this logic:

IF

inflation is caused by too much money chasing too few goods,

AND

The Monetary transmission mechanism is putting money exclusively in the hands of wealthy people who are not buying goods, but investable assets

AND 

The same monetary transmission mechanism is starving the larger mass of people who are buying progressively fewer goods and services (in favor of higher rent, higher health care, and higher education costs)

THEN

Developing sustainable price inflation is nearly impossible, because the market of people who are willing and able to buy products is shrinking.  To those who are finding that money is being sprayed on them like a fire hose, they have no choice but to buy ever inflating assets with their excess funds because they do not need another iPhone.

The problem is, that like a company that buys back its stock at stupidly high prices, the moment that the Leaning Tower of Pisa tips over, all of this wealth evaporates.  Meaning them no malice, if I could buy puts on billionaires net worth, I would.  This imbalance is reaching the tipping point.